Growing Power of Iraqi Kurdistan Could Backfire on Iran

Iran’s strategy to break Iraq into three component territories, and to dominate those territories in order to reduce regional opposition and to gain unfettered access to Syria and the Mediterranean as a result of the Western invasion of Iraq in 2004, has had profound success.

The country is now, at best, a federation, with elements of a slide toward confederacy or even the breaking away of some territory. Iran dominates, and will increasingly dominate, the Shi’a-controlled central heartland and the Government of Iraq, particularly when US and Coalition forces depart. Iraq’s northern — and predominantly Kurdish — region is now virtually an independent state. It is certainly an autonomous state.

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