 |
| © Paolo Margari, Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND |
(kreuz.net) German economy will be doing penance because of the age of its population till 2060-- more than other industrial lands.
That is the result of a far future study by the Paris based 'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development' (OECD)
Fall Back to 10th Place
The German economy will only grow 1.1 percent till 2060 every year.
In the coming fifty years no other industrial country will lose so intensely its social significance than Germany.
The country will fall in the list of national economies from 5th place to 10th.
German Rest Home
The reason for this is the aging of the decadent and demoralized population.
The study shows that the portion of those over 65 years of age -- compared to the spread of age between 15 to 64 years -- will double to almost 65%.
The share of Germany in world gross national production will fall from 2 to 4.8%.
It gets worse
The winners of the study are China, India and Indonesia.
Their economic weight results in great part from their significant populations.
The OECD insists then that these forecasts over such long periods of time are bound with significant uncertainties.
In other words: It could be worse.
Link to kreuz.net...
1 comment:
I agree with this commentary with one proviso. China's one child policy means it is on the same suicidal trajectory as the nations of the West. It's 1.3 bilion plus population probably means that it will take longer for the problem to become cronic but with a birth rate even lower than that of Europe it is destined to follow an even steeper downward trajectory. I have read elsewhere it may be the first nation in history to become old before becoming powerful. It's current growth is due to it playing catch up as it modernises from the disastrous Mao era policies, not from natural organic growth. I have also read of brand new modern cities with hardly anyone in them and high speed rail systems going nowhere in particular as different party bosses and officials pour money into pet projects in their particular regions and provinces.
Post a Comment