Iran’s strategy to break Iraq into three component territories, and to dominate those territories in order to reduce regional opposition and to gain unfettered access to Syria and the Mediterranean as a result of the Western invasion of Iraq in 2004, has had profound success.
The country is now, at best, a federation, with elements of a slide toward confederacy or even the breaking away of some territory. Iran dominates, and will increasingly dominate, the Shi’a-controlled central heartland and the Government of Iraq, particularly when US and Coalition forces depart. Iraq’s northern — and predominantly Kurdish — region is now virtually an independent state. It is certainly an autonomous state.
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